because rumors are based on luck you cant predict that so easy. In large number of rumors you would really get average, but you cant make 200 rumors on 1 player prov.

First question: I have to disagree here with Tiger. As far as I understand the explanation, the 50% applies to the real number of troops/resources in the province, not to the number you get with one rumour. So, if the real number is 100k, you can get answers in the range of 50k-150k.

yes, 50 % applies to real number, not to rumored one. So if player have 100k exactly, then rumors can show 50k to 150k. i agree on that.

but when you get rumor, its a random number in +-50% of some real resource number which you wish to figure out. with one rumor you can only get min and max resources in some interval.

To get boundries you must assume you missed maximum 50% in + or -.

Rumors showed 100 k and thats 50 % of real resource because it has shown only half of it. so maximum is 200k, he cant have more.

Rumors showed 100 k and thats 150 % of real resource because it has shown maximum value you can miss. so 100 k is 150 %. real resources is 66.7 k

thats minimum and maximum in the way i understand math.

for example if you get once 100k and second time 290k you can be sure real resources are close to 200 k. those far numbers in rumors are most precise.

whenever i attacked, that worked fine for me, unless i was to late because calculating min and max.

I will really ask programmers, but after the maintinence will be over and i will gave you answer.